The trouble is that I would need an exogenous shock to beliefs which is not caused by an objective change in the information about the likelihood of something happening. I’d need to measure something unmeasurable, and then subtract out another unmeasurable thing at the same time. Also it implies a violation of rationality.
To build on that, the information shock doesn’t necessarily need to be objectively untrue.
And since public belief of any narrative is going to have a variable and unique distribution, you could even break it down to theoretically correlate the individual mismatch between belief and objective reality to its outcomes.
[[ ]] The story goes like this: Earth is captured by a technocapital singularity as renaissance rationalitization and oceanic navigation lock into commoditization take-off. Logistically accelerating techno-economic interactivity crumbles social order in auto-sophisticating machine runaway. As markets learn to manufacture intelligence, politics modernizes, upgrades paranoia, and tries to get a grip.The body count climbs through a series of globewars. Emergent Planetary Commercium trashes the Holy Roman Empire, the Napoleonic Continental System, the Second and Third Reich, and the Soviet International, cranking-up world disorder through compressing phases. Deregulation and the state arms-race each other into cyberspace.
By the time soft-engineering slithers out of its box into yours, human security is lurching into crisis. Cloning, lateral genodata transfer, transversal replication, and cyberotics, flood in amongst a relapse onto bacterial sex.
On a conceptual level, I like to phrase it as, “narratives create their own reality”.
In this case, perhaps an initial attempt might look like trying to find a measure of belief in the narrative, and then correlate to adoption trends.
I know that’s kinda vague, just reasoning it out.
The trouble is that I would need an exogenous shock to beliefs which is not caused by an objective change in the information about the likelihood of something happening. I’d need to measure something unmeasurable, and then subtract out another unmeasurable thing at the same time. Also it implies a violation of rationality.
To build on that, the information shock doesn’t necessarily need to be objectively untrue.
And since public belief of any narrative is going to have a variable and unique distribution, you could even break it down to theoretically correlate the individual mismatch between belief and objective reality to its outcomes.
[[ ]] The story goes like this: Earth is captured by a technocapital singularity as renaissance rationalitization and oceanic navigation lock into commoditization take-off. Logistically accelerating techno-economic interactivity crumbles social order in auto-sophisticating machine runaway. As markets learn to manufacture intelligence, politics modernizes, upgrades paranoia, and tries to get a grip.The body count climbs through a series of globewars. Emergent Planetary Commercium trashes the Holy Roman Empire, the Napoleonic Continental System, the Second and Third Reich, and the Soviet International, cranking-up world disorder through compressing phases. Deregulation and the state arms-race each other into cyberspace.
By the time soft-engineering slithers out of its box into yours, human security is lurching into crisis. Cloning, lateral genodata transfer, transversal replication, and cyberotics, flood in amongst a relapse onto bacterial sex.
Neo-China arrives from the future.
Hypersynthetic drugs click into digital voodoo.
Retro-disease.
Nanospasm.