One complication is that decision making based on prediction markets implicitly uses evidential decision theory, not causal decision theory, which can lead to some weird results.
In the motivating example, obviously the marginal utility of income depends on whether or not the tax obtains. Maybe you could stipulate that bettors must be unaffected (directly) by the tax (although they might be affected indirectly).
One complication is that decision making based on prediction markets implicitly uses evidential decision theory, not causal decision theory, which can lead to some weird results.
https://dynomight.net/futarchy/
Yeah but evidential decision theory is the optimal decision theory, so it all works out. :)
Haha fair enough. I wonder what the ideal decision theory actually is for monetary policy?
There's no condition for the proposed market to obtain though. The market is conditional on today.
In the motivating example, obviously the marginal utility of income depends on whether or not the tax obtains. Maybe you could stipulate that bettors must be unaffected (directly) by the tax (although they might be affected indirectly).
https://protos.com/why-polymarket-users-are-betting-that-jesus-christ-will-return/